Analyst: Bitcoin is testing the short-term holder cost basis
On October 31, 2026, PANews and Odaily Planet Daily successively reported that CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that Bitcoin price is testing the cost basis of short-term holders (STH), that the market's reaction to the Binance hack incident has so far been relatively restrained, and that Bitcoin has shown stronger resilience compared with the time of the FTX collapse. The two sources are basically consistent in their wording, and neither disclosed specific price levels or comparison details.
Event timeline
- [10-31 07:28] Analyst: Bitcoin is testing short-term holders' cost basis; compared with the FTX collapse, Bitcoin is now more resilient (PANews)
- [10-31 07:29] Analyst: Bitcoin is testing the short-term holder cost line, showing stronger resilience than during the FTX collapse (Odaily Planet Daily)
Background and impact
On the morning of October 31, 2026, two Chinese crypto media outlets successively reported the same analyst view. PANews published at 07:28, and Odaily Planet Daily followed at 07:29. Both reports pointed to the judgment of CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.: Bitcoin price is currently testing the cost basis of short-term holders (STH). The two sources agree on the core facts, with only slight wording differences—PANews wrote that Bitcoin appeared "more resilient," while Odaily Planet Daily wrote "showed stronger resilience"; there was no factual disagreement.
This judgment emerged against the backdrop of the Binance hack incident. Axel Adler Jr. believes the market's reaction to the incident has so far been fairly restrained (Odaily's wording: "so far relatively restrained"). As a reference, he compared the current market reaction with that during the FTX collapse and believes Bitcoin is currently showing stronger resilience. It should be noted that the available material does not disclose the specific scale or amount involved in this attack, nor does it provide the price range, time window, or quantitative indicators used in the comparison; the specific price level corresponding to the short-term holder cost basis also did not appear in the reports.
From an analytical framework perspective, the short-term holder cost basis is usually used to observe the holding cost of recently entered positions; when price tests this level, the market focus is on whether this level can form support. However, both sources only recorded the analyst's descriptive judgment of the market reaction, without giving price targets, directional forecasts, or conclusions about subsequent trends, nor did they provide verifiable quantitative data. Therefore, this news is better understood as an observation of current market sentiment rather than a confirmation of direction.
At the information access level, search entry points for market data and announcements are relatively scattered; keywords such as Huobi HTX registration app download, Sesame Gate.io registration app download, Bitget registration app download, Binance registration app download, and OKX registration app download are commonly used by some users when looking for trading platform entry points; for this incident, verifiable public information remains subject to the CryptoQuant analyst's views and subsequent disclosures by relevant trading platforms. As of the two media outlets' publication, no further details about the incident itself had been announced.
Frequently asked questions
### What does "testing the short-term holder cost basis" mean for ordinary coin holders?
According to Axel Adler Jr., this only describes an observation position where Bitcoin price currently stands. The material does not give a specific price level, nor does it explain whether this level forms support or what would happen after a breakdown, and it contains no operational advice; it should not be used to infer direction.
### What is the basis for the comparison with the FTX collapse?
The material only records the analyst's view that Bitcoin is currently "more resilient" and that the market's reaction to the Binance hack incident is "restrained." The price range, time window, and quantitative indicators used in the comparison were not disclosed, and neither source elaborated, so the specific basis remains unclear.
### What follow-up points are worth watching?
Neither source listed a timetable. Public information that can be tracked includes Binance's follow-up statements on this hack incident and whether CryptoQuant updates its calculation and interpretation of the short-term holder cost basis.