Arthur Hayes: Dollar liquidity is rebuilding again; Bitcoin
On November 3, 2026, Arthur Hayes said on X that dollar liquidity is being replenished or re-accumulating, and he expects BTC to weaken before the Federal Reserve and/or banks begin expanding their balance sheets. Odaily Planet Daily and PANews reported the statement one after the other; neither material provided a time window or quantitative details.
Event Timeline
- [11-03 01:17] Arthur Hayes: Dollar liquidity is recovering, and BTC is expected to weaken before the Fed or banks expand their balance sheets (Odaily Planet Daily)
- [11-03 01:19] Arthur Hayes: Dollar liquidity is re-accumulating, and BTC is expected to weaken before the Fed or banks expand their balance sheets (PANews)
Background and Impact
In the early morning of November 3, 2026, Arthur Hayes posted on X, giving a judgment on dollar liquidity and Bitcoin's trend. Odaily Planet Daily reported at 01:17 that Hayes said dollar liquidity is being replenished, and that before the Federal Reserve and/or banks begin expanding their balance sheets, BTC is expected to weaken. PANews published a report on the same topic at 01:19, stating that dollar liquidity is re-accumulating, and that before the Federal Reserve and/or banks begin expanding their balance sheets, Bitcoin is expected to perform weakly. Both sources are based on the same X post and add no interview or further explanation.
The two reports are consistent in their main point; the differences are concentrated in wording: Odaily uses "recovering," "replenished," "BTC," and "weaken," while PANews uses "re-accumulating," "Bitcoin," and "perform weakly." These are differences at the level of Chinese wording and do not constitute a disagreement in factual judgment. Neither material provides a time window, price target, specific positions, or a definition of the liquidity indicators involved. Therefore, Hayes's judgment currently has only a conclusion and no verifiable quantitative basis.
From the timeline, this is a one-off, immediate public statement: about two minutes after the post, it was reported in succession by two crypto media outlets, and the materials contain no subsequent supplement or correction. In terms of background, what the materials can confirm is only