VanEck Head of Research: Bitcoin’s average price needs to re
VanEck's head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel said that network hashrate is approaching an all-time high of 1,038 EH/s, and the next halving is expected in April 2028; based on a single S21 XP miner priced at $3,459, electricity costs of $0.08/kWh, flat hashrate and 3-year depreciation, Bitcoin's average price needs to be about $100,000 to break even, and pure cash payback by the end of 2028 requires about $116,000, while the current market price is about $77,500.
Event Timeline
- [11-04 00:56] VanEck research head: Bitcoin needs an average price of $100,000 for miners to break even (Wu Shuo)
- [11-04 01:13] VanEck research head: Bitcoin needs an average price of $100,000 for miners to break even (PANews)
- [11-04 01:14] VanEck research head: If miners are to break even, Bitcoin needs an average price of $100,000 (Odaily Planet Daily)
Background and Impact
In the early hours of November 4, 2026, VanEck's head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel posted on the X platform, giving a set of calculations centered on Bitcoin miner costs. Wu Shuo was the first to report at 00:56, followed by PANews at 01:13 and Odaily Planet Daily at 01:14; the figures cited by the three sources were consistent, with no discrepancies. The core conclusion is that Bitcoin's average price from now until