VanEck: Miners pivoting to AI data centers saw shares fall 3
VanEck's November 4 research report shows that Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to leasing AI data center infrastructure saw their share prices fall by an average of about 35% in October, with an average drawdown of about 62% from 2026 highs, but no signed lease contracts have been canceled. VanEck believes the market underestimates the value of their 10- to 20-year long-term leases and does not distinguish these companies from Neocloud firms that directly rent out GPU computing power.
Event Timeline
- [11-04 23:26] VanEck: AI data center transition mining companies' share prices fell by an average of 35% in October; market underestimates the value of long-term leases (Wu Shuo)
- [11-04 23:57] VanEck: Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to AI data center leasing saw their share prices fall by an average of about 35% in October (PANews)
Background and Impact
VanEck published a research report on November 4 stating that the share prices of Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to leasing AI data center infrastructure fell by an average of about 35% in October, with an average drawdown of about 62% from 2026 highs. In a November 5 report, PANews cited the same report as saying that leases already signed by such companies have not been canceled, and demand signals are still strengthening. Both sources confirm that no signed lease contracts of companies tracked by VanEck have been canceled.
The two reports differ slightly in their wording on the reasons for the decline. Source 1 said the decline was affected by rising interest rates, tightening credit, and policy uncertainty; Source 2 said this round of selling was mainly driven by rising financing costs and macroeconomic sentiment. VanEck's core judgment is consistent: the market does not fully distinguish infrastructure leasers that provide power and data center facilities from Neocloud companies that directly rent out GPU computing power. The former usually have 10- to 20-year long-term leases and relatively stable cash flow, and the value of their long-term leases is undervalued by the market.
The report places the bottleneck for AI infrastructure on power, not chips. US grid interconnection remains the main bottleneck for AI expansion; of about 2,290 GW of queued interconnection capacity in 2025, only about 2% has achieved commercial operation. Against the backdrop of increasingly scarce powered, grid-connected sites, such mining companies usually sign 10- to 20-year long-term leases with investment-grade tenants. Based on expected 2028 EBITDA, these companies are currently valued at about half of data center REITs. VanEck believes that if these companies paused expansion, the value supported solely by signed leases would be significantly higher than current share prices.
The risk milestones to track are on the debt side. The report mentions that about $23.4 billion of construction debt will enter its first early repayment window in 2027-2028, and VanEck expects refinancing may be delayed to 2029-2030. For readers who wish to cross-check related asset market data and trading access, product and market information can be obtained through channels such as Huobi HTX registration and App download, Sesame Gate.io registration and App download, Bitget registration and App download, Binance registration and App download, and OKX registration and App download; information from these channels does not constitute verification of the above judgments.
FAQ
### Which companies are specifically affected by this decline, and will it affect the Bitcoin price?
The report refers to Bitcoin mining companies transitioning to leasing AI data center infrastructure, not all mining companies. The source materials only provide share price declines and valuation comparisons, do not mention the impact on the Bitcoin price, and do not provide relevant judgments.
### Will signed data center leases be canceled?
Both sources say that no signed lease contracts of companies tracked by VanEck have been canceled, and PANews also mentioned that demand signals are still strengthening. This is the report's conclusion for the current period; the materials do not disclose data on subsequent lease changes.
### What time points need to be watched going forward?
First, about $23.4 billion of construction debt will enter its first early repayment window in 2027-2028, and VanEck expects refinancing may be delayed to 2029-2030; second, US grid interconnection progress, with only about 2% of about 2,290 GW of queued capacity in 2025 having achieved commercial operation.