Analyst: Bitcoin cycle indicators show the pullback is not y
On November 5, 2026, CryptoQuant analyst CryptoZeno pointed out that the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index had fallen to 15.8%, placing it in the “watch/mild stress” range; BTC was trading near $80,000, about 46% below its previous all-time high. He believes the market is in a pullback and depressed phase and has not confirmed a cycle bottom.
Event Timeline
- [11-05 03:48] Analyst: Bitcoin cycle indicators show the pullback may not be over; cycle bottom not yet confirmed (PANews)
- [11-05 03:50] Analyst: Bitcoin cycle indicators show the pullback may not be over; cycle bottom not yet confirmed (Odaily Planet Daily)
Background and Impact
On November 5, 2026, PANews (03:48) and Odaily Planet Daily (03:50) reported successively that CryptoQuant analyst CryptoZeno posted that Bitcoin cycle indicators show the current pullback may not be over. The two sources agree on the core readings: the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8%, placing it in the “watch/mild stress” range; BTC is currently trading near $80,000, about 46% below its previous all-time high. The index remains far below levels seen in active or extreme phases; that is, although the drawdown is large, the reading itself has not entered extreme territory.
CryptoZeno’s judgment is that the market structure points to a cooling cycle, but has not yet reached the extreme conditions common at major turning points. The Cycle Extremes Oscillator also supports a cautious view: its 30-day moving average is near the bottom of its historical range and far below the 1.0 threshold, with no obvious upward signal at present. Accordingly, Bitcoin is in a pullback and depressed phase, rather than a confirmed cycle bottom. Although the nearly 46% drawdown is significant, the low reading itself cannot prove that selling pressure has been exhausted; before a sustained rebound forms, the market may still consolidate further or see another round of decline.
The two materials point in the same direction in their conclusions, with slight differences in disclosed details: Odaily’s summary stops at saying the oscillator is “near the bottom of its historical range, far below the 1.0 threshold, and currently has no obvious upward signal,” without elaborating further; PANews adds the key signals given by the analyst—the Cycle Extremes Index continuing to rise toward the active phase, accompanied by a rebound in the oscillator. This difference is a matter of differing completeness of reporting and does not involve a conflict in specific data.
For readers tracking the cycle framework, the information in this update is more about judging where we are now than about judging direction: the indicators have neither given bottom confirmation nor confirmation of a new round of decline, so the observation window therefore continues. It should be noted that there are many entry points for checking prices and tracking indicators; Huobi HTX registration/App download, Zhimi Gate.io registration/App download, Bitget registration/App download, Binance registration/App download, OKX registration/App download, etc. are merely choices at the tool level. A reading such as 15.8% itself remains an observational indicator, and judgment requires combining it with whether it continues to rebound.
FAQ
### What does the 15.8% reading mean?
It means the 30-day moving average of the Bitcoin Cycle Extremes Index has fallen to 15.8%, placing it in the “watch/mild stress” range and still far below levels in active or extreme phases. According to CryptoZeno, this corresponds to a pullback and depressed phase, not a confirmed cycle bottom.
### Which signals need to be watched going forward?
PANews mentioned that the key signal is the Cycle Extremes Index continuing to rise toward the active phase, accompanied by a rebound in the Cycle Extremes Oscillator. The oscillator’s 30-day moving average is currently near the bottom of its historical range and far below the 1.0 threshold, with no obvious upward signal yet.
### Does the 46% drawdown indicate that selling pressure has been fully released?
This cannot be inferred. CryptoZeno explicitly stated that the low reading itself cannot prove that selling pressure has been exhausted; before a sustained rebound forms, the market may still consolidate further or see another round of decline.