JD Weekly: Battle for BTC range lows intensifies; loss of mo

2026-10-26 22:32 · 7 sources

BTCETHSOLPEPE

The JD channel focuses on technical analysis of cryptocurrencies, primarily covering mainstream coins such as BTC, ETH and SOL, as well as altcoins such as ZEC, PEPE and HYPE. The analysis style combines price range structure (yVAH, rVWAP, VAH and other derivatives indicators) with derivatives data (OI, funding rate, ETF flows), leaning toward defensive operations and waiting for confirmation at key levels. Recent areas of focus include the battle over the BTC range low, potential squeeze risk arising from OI accumulation, the ETH spot-perpetual divergence, as well as breakout of key levels and shorting opportunities in SOL, ZEC and other coins. The overall tone is cautious, emphasizing structural observation rather than blindly chasing longs.

**Overall bias**: Lean defensive on the short side, waiting for confirmation at key levels

7-Day View Timeline

• **2026-10-22** BTC touches the yVAH range low, OI accumulation raises concern: BTC's swing low sits near 80k, touching the local range low of the yVAH. OI in this area has risen sharply, and the author is wary that the buildup of shorts at the bottom could trigger a short squeeze, expressing the hope that the market can see healthier movement.
• **2026-10-22** HYPE watched for an opportunity on a deep pullback to the $70 area: The author stated that if HYPE can plunge deeply to just above $70, sweep the August low and touch the pqVWAP, they would be interested in building a position, believing the pullback would bring many attractive prices.
• **2026-10-23** BTC consolidates on Friday, hit by the largest ETF outflow in a long time: BTC price remains in the same spot, with limited volatility expected on Friday. Yesterday's BTC ETF saw the largest outflow in a long time, essentially reversing the prior day's inflow, while US and European equities have posted poor returns over the past month.
• **2026-10-23** PEPE shows relative strength, attention on post-breakout potential: The author believes PEPE is currently the only genuinely interesting altcoin, showing strong relative strength; if it breaks through the key level it could be brewing roughly 50% of upside room, and suggests keeping it at the top of the watchlist.
• **2026-10-23** ETH open interest surges, significant spot-perpetual divergence: ETH shows a sharp OI accumulation similar to BTC, with the funding rate falling notably; there is a wide divergence between spot and perpetual contracts, hinting that market structure may be facing change.
• **2026-10-23** ZEC oscillates in the 1070-1300 range, attention on a 1300 breakout: After breaking its local high, ZEC fell back below the pqVAH of 1300, holding in a 1070 to 1300 range. If it can reclaim 1300, the author leans toward going long and targeting new highs, believing the low is in.
• **2026-10-26** BTC momentum continues to weaken, not long for now and waiting for lower levels: BTC has spent a large amount of time below the 30-day rVWAP and has returned below the 2026 yVAH; the author believes strength and value have truly been lost, and is not going long at this point, waiting for the 78/76k range to make a decision.
• **2026-10-26** SOL breaks below the 365-day rVWAP, attempting a short setup: SOL lost the 365-day rVWAP support and touched the $100 mark; the author entered short at 100.54-102 with a stop at 103.5 and 1% risk, believing that if it continues to break lower it could quickly fall to $90.

Watchlist

BTC, ETH, SOL, PEPE

Sources (on-site messages)

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