Bojan's Weekly Bearish Scenario Analysis: Defense of pdLow a
This channel focuses on structured analysis of Bitcoin intraday to weekly trading, publishing daily trade recaps, morning session positioning, and multi-scenario projections (base case, bearish, bullish, invalidation/no-trade zones), along with macro calendar reminders. The style is objective and plan-oriented, repeatedly emphasizing that counter-trend positions must match one's level of conviction, and that price levels are planning areas rather than signals. Recent focus has been on the battle over the previous day's high/low (pdHigh/pdLow) and the weekend/weekly lows, key levels such as 80,500, 79,000 and 76,000, as well as persistent spot selling, ETF outflows, and changes in open interest; it is also closely tracking this week's macro events such as the FOMC and ECB. The overall bias is bearish, but market reaction confirmation is required before acting.
**Overall bias**: Bearish, but emphasizing waiting for reaction and risk control
7-Day View Timeline
- **2026-10-23** Morning session projection: an inside day as the base case, with a greater inclination to break the previous day's low. The previous day's range was about 4.3%/$3,500; the open traded in the lower part of the value area and tested the local value high. Long plans at 80,500 and short plans at 82,000 and 83,100 were given, along with pdHigh/pdLow invalidation conditions noted.
- **2026-10-23** Trade recap: a small counter-trend long was stopped out; ETF outflows of $635 million. The opening sell-off ran straight through the planned long zone, and the retest at 83,100 for shorts never appeared; after an extension of about 3%, a small counter-trend long was established targeting a gap fill, but was ultimately stopped out. Heavy spot selling persisted, with open interest remaining elevated.
- **2026-10-23** During the livestream, judged the tape to be weak, viewing any retest as a short entry down to pdLow. During the livestream it was stated that the market looked very weak with a potential short opportunity, and that any retest at present pointed toward pdLow; this was followed by a joke about doubling the short position and going full leverage, which he explicitly denied doing.
- **2026-10-25** Reminder that the clock changes, with the London open one hour earlier for non-EU regions. Channel members were reminded that, after the timezone adjustment, the next day's London open would be one hour earlier for everyone outside the EU, echoing the later note in the analysis that the New York open shifts to 14:30 local time.
- **2026-10-26** Sunday recap: key lows lost, two Friday shorts stopped out. Price broke below an important historical reversal low without a forceful bounce; Saturday saw larger weekend volatility, with liquidations spiking near the lows, after which open interest declined, and spot selling continued from Wednesday's high.
- **2026-10-26** Bearish scenario projection: below 79,000, attention turns to the 76,000 area. Short levels listed at 81,250, 82,000, 82,500, 83,100 and 83,600, with a long level at 79,000; a break below 79,000 puts 78,300/77,200/76,700 in focus, with deeper downside toward 74,000 and 72,000.
- **2026-10-26** Listed this week's FOMC and ECB schedule, calling October still a consolidation month. Released the timing for October 27 durable goods data, the October 28 FOMC decision and press conference, and October 29 core PCE, GDP and the ECB decision; also stated that the weekly low had not yet been filled in, leaning toward a bearish weekly and monthly close.
Watchlist
BTC, NEAR
Sources (in-site messages)
- [10-20 06:24 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988555473944596)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988728937775185)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988732515786825)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988735522963467)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988751469584468)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988763792580711)
- [10-20 06:25 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1561988786068398200)
- [10-20 14:12 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1562106144564977665)
- [10-20 14:12 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1562106164685049927)
- [10-20 14:12 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1562106166320824502)
- [10-20 16:06 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1562134998969098301)
- [10-21 07:10 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1372960881767354539&message_id=1562362336420044842)