How to Build Positions in Tiers After the AI Crash? Chip-Sto

2026-10-26 15:41 · 2 sources

NEAR

"US Stock Research Society" focuses on US stock market analysis. The channel owner "Shezhang Shuo" (President Says) publishes pre-market and post-market reviews daily, sector rotation observations, and anonymous Q&A. The channel focuses on the AI/semiconductor supply chain, recently centering on tiered positioning strategies after pullbacks in targets such as NVIDIA and SOXX, while tracking US Treasury yields, oil prices, and defensive sector rotation signals. The analytical style leans toward combining technical analysis with macroeconomics, with a habit of giving specific price levels and position sizing recommendations, emphasizing building positions in batches rather than buying the dip all at once, and frequently citing brokerage reports, options flow data, and news sources to support judgments.

**Overall bias**: Bullish, but emphasizing building positions in batches and risk control

Timeline of views over the past 7 days

• **2026-10-23** AI trade sees internal de-rating, Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunge in a single day: On October 22, the Nasdaq fell 2.6% in a single day, its biggest drop since June; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 6.7%, with capital retreating en masse from the AI infrastructure chain, as the market recalculates how long AI capital expenditure can be sustained.
• **2026-10-23** SOXX drawdown of 28%, recommends dollar-cost averaging with 20% position to build gradually: SOXX pulled back to its 200-day moving average. The President believes the worst case is a retest of the 50-week moving average at around $442, with 442–472 as the short-term bottom range. He recommends establishing a 20% position first and slowly scaling to full size within the coming week.
• **2026-10-23** US Treasury yields rise to 5%, defensive stocks hit record highs: Berkshire, Lilly, Apple, Mastercard, Visa, WMT, and COST all hit record highs; the President warns that value stocks are severely overbought, and once they pull back, tech stocks will rebound — capital is merely rotating rather than retreating wholesale.
• **2026-10-24** Defensive stocks collectively close lower, interpreted as a sign of a chip rebound: Defensive stocks such as PG, AAPL, LLY, and WMT collectively closed lower. The President believes defensive sector valuations are already higher than tech, the crowded trade is nearing its breaking point, and he recommends buying AI hardware and chips on dips.
• **2026-10-24** Tax-driven selling by Chinese wealthy may have fueled the chip rout: The President points out that October 24 is the deadline for China's ultra-high-net-worth individuals to pay the 20% overseas capital income tax, and the prior concentrated selling of US stocks may be related to this. Once the selling pressure ends, the market is expected to stabilize.
• **2026-10-24** Weekly review: The adjustment is concentrated in AI stocks rather than a broad retreat: Over the week, the S&P fell about 0.5% and the Nasdaq about 0.7%, while the Dow actually rose 0.4%; about two-thirds of S&P constituents rose for the week. Brent crude approached $117, and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5%.
• **2026-10-25** Goldman Sachs cuts South Korea's Kospi target by 25%, seen as a bottom signal: The President believes institutions issuing negative calls in a concentrated manner often occurs near a cyclical bottom. Combined with hedge fund US short positions near a five-year high, a short squeeze may be brewing.
• **2026-10-25** SK Hynix HBM4 certification delayed, Samsung continues to close the gap in share: SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit forecast was revised down 5.6%, due to HBM4 shipments falling short of expectations; its HBM revenue share fell from 58% in Q1 to 50% in Q2, while Samsung rose from 21% to 33%.

Watchlist

NEAR

Sources (on-site messages)

• [10-19 12:49 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561722840812621967)
• [10-19 12:49 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561722853093802045)
• [10-19 13:26 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561732210585899089)
• [10-19 13:26 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561732231880376322)
• [10-19 13:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561739761792581695)
• [10-19 14:26 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561747311724593194)
• [10-19 14:26 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561747318234030334)
• [10-19 14:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561754860808835165)
• [10-19 14:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561754883852341269)
• [10-19 14:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561754897823703182)
• [10-19 14:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561754905121923192)
• [10-19 14:56 View original message](/dashboard2?channel_id=1508852629571244282&message_id=1561754911765434411)

About this channel

The "US Stock Research Society Teaching Channel" is the on-site channel archive page of the "US Stock Research Society." This page compiles the key points of the channel's public statements over the past 7 days, making it easy to trace the evolution of its views.